Sign in

    MILLERKNOLL (MLKN)

    Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Feb 19, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$27.47Last close (Sep 19, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$24.25Open (Sep 20, 2024)
    Price Change
    $-3.22(-11.72%)
    • Management expects gross margins to improve in the back half of the year due to leveraging overhead costs and growth in the higher-margin retail segment. The company has observed gross margins stabilizing at around 38.5% to 39.5% over the last 5 or 6 quarters and anticipates further improvement as economic conditions improve and retail growth plans kick in.
    • Integration of the Knoll brand into the international dealer network is progressing well, with 60% integration achieved and full integration expected by year-end, opening new opportunities for growth. This progress is already leading to new opportunities with the Knoll brand through the combined network.
    • Market trends show an increasing emphasis on returning to the office, benefiting MillerKnoll due to their strong product portfolio tailored to evolving workplace needs. The company is experiencing strong order growth across diverse industry sectors, including financial services, banking, pharma, public sector, healthcare, and an uptick in the technology sector. Notably, projects over $5 million were up over 40% for the quarter, indicating robust demand.
    • Margins have plateaued, and future improvement depends on increased volumes, which may not occur if economic conditions do not improve. Management stated that margins are currently stable and the "next leg up for us as we see economic conditions improve, we have a real opportunity to leverage overhead costs across our manufacturing footprint globally". This reliance on economic improvement may pose a risk if conditions do not materialize as expected.
    • Customers are requesting longer lead times for deliveries, which could cause revenue to lag order growth over the next few quarters. Management noted that "the average time from order entry to customer requested ship date has increased... a higher percentage of orders remain in the backlog as of quarter end than we were expecting". This may delay revenue recognition and impact short-term financial performance.
    • Operating margins are expected to decline in Q2 due to unfavorable mix shifts and timing issues, reflecting challenges in profitability. Management guided that "operating margins are going to be down from a year ago" due to a "shift in business and product mix" and "shift in cyber promotional timing" affecting gross margins and operating expenses. This indicates pressures on profitability in the near term.
    1. Margin Outlook
      Q: Why are margins expected to be softer in Q2?
      A: Management explained that while they expect improvements in labor and overhead efficiency due to increased order activity, their gross margins are being offset by a shift in business and product mix. They're rotating out of higher-margin retail sales and some specialty brands as they move into Q2. Additionally, marketing spend is front-loaded due to cyber promotional timing, but the associated revenue won't be realized until later, which impacts operating margins in the second quarter.

    2. Retail Demand Outlook
      Q: Is retail demand expected to pick up in coming quarters?
      A: Management is optimistic about the retail outlook, anticipating improved demand trends. They believe the recent 0.5 point interest rate cut will stimulate consumer confidence. With marketing spend increasing in a more seasonally suitable time, they plan to reintroduce traditional awareness campaigns to capitalize on cyber timing. They expect the housing market to loosen up and consumer confidence to rebound, which should benefit retail sales.

    3. Order Delays and Revenue Impact
      Q: Are longer customer delivery requests affecting revenue?
      A: Customers are requesting deliveries further out from the order date due to larger and more complex projects, with projects over $5 million up over 40% for the quarter. This naturally extends lead times. Clients are also placing orders earlier to ensure delivery times amidst longer construction schedules. This trend causes revenue to lag order growth but is not new; backlogs have settled into a 10 to 12-week range, up from 7 to 8 weeks pre-COVID.

    4. Industry Demand Trends
      Q: Which industry sectors are driving order growth?
      A: There's increased activity across several sectors, including financial services, banking, pharma, public sector, and healthcare. Notably, the technology sector has shown an uptick, with Northern California being one of the strongest-performing regions. Internationally, they're seeing large project opportunities in legal and business services in Europe, technology in India, and healthcare in the Middle East.

    5. Long-Term Margin Expectations
      Q: Where can gross margins go longer term?
      A: Management believes that as economic conditions improve, they have opportunities to leverage overhead costs across their manufacturing footprint and retail SG&A expenses. While pricing benefits will be incremental due to normalized annual increases, the next margin improvements will come from operational leverage. Over time, growth in the higher-margin retail business should also contribute to margin expansion.

    6. Full-Year Guidance and Macro Factors
      Q: Does full-year guidance assume an improving macro backdrop?
      A: Yes, their guidance anticipates improvements across all business segments. The recent certainty provided by the Federal Reserve's actions boosts their confidence. Indicators they've monitored for several quarters are materializing, with consistent orders above last year. They expect the housing market's recovery and increased consumer confidence to benefit the entire business.

    7. Knoll Integration Progress
      Q: What's the status of integrating Knoll into the dealer network?
      A: As of the end of Q1, they have integrated the MillerKnoll combined dealer network across about 60% of the international network. Their goal is to complete the integration by the end of the fiscal year. They're making good progress and starting to see real opportunities with the Knoll brand through the combined network.

    8. Return-to-Office Trends
      Q: What are customers saying about return-to-office and hybrid work?
      A: Customers are focusing less on the return-to-office dilemma and more on being together, even supporting limited hybrid arrangements. There's a push towards frequent in-office presence, with companies recognizing the benefits of connection and culture. Management feels confident about their product portfolio, which is well-suited to meet the evolving needs of the post-COVID workplace.

    Research analysts covering MILLERKNOLL.